Congratulations to alumnus and former Boone Honors Program member Joshua Wright ’19 on his recent Best Model award in the first International Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition hosted by George Mason University. More than 80 contestants across four continents formed forty-one teams to build statistical models predicting the peak bloom date of cherry trees at four locations around the world: Washington D.C., USA; Kyoto, Japan; Vancouver, Canada; and Liestal-Weideli, Switzerland.
Wright and his teammate, Taehoon Song, created their award winning model by combining a popular statistical model (the logistic-growth model) with a popular biological predictor (growing degree days or GDD). The judges appreciated the simplicity and interpretability of this approach, with one remarking that the team provided “a wonderful demonstration of the power of using the simplest possible model that captures the key biological aspects of the question.”
Ferrum College Professor of English and Director of the Boone Honors Program Lana Whited stated, “Josh’s success in this competition obviously required the application of critical thinking skills drawn from multiple academic disciplines and really illustrates the benefits of liberal arts education.”
