The American public expects much from a President, from balancing the budget of the country to insuring America’s image with the rest of the world and bringing prosperity to the nation. Perhaps the expectations of the American people for the President are too high. After all, the President is only a single person with the responsibility of showing the face of the United States to the rest of the world. American citizens also expect the President to be someone apart and of a higher moral grade than the average citizen. Perhaps it is these high expectations that lead to the disappointment of the citizens in the United States.

Many examples of Presidents who have come to office with a seemingly large amount of public support and confidence have gone down in proverbial flames by the end of their sometimes-shortened presidencies. These examples include the exploits of Richard Nixon as well as well as the Bill Clinton marital scandal. After a outrage, the public seems to have remarkable rebound ability. This fact is demonstrated in the idea that American love to latch onto political figures. Americans want to love their politicians, but the bureaucracy sometimes makes this difficult through their actions and deceitfulness.

The President also has a habit of embarrassing the American public through the slurry of mediocrity that sometimes issues forth from their mouths, and in turn is recorded by the media. The constant and unceasing lack of proper grammar by George W. Bush, in particular the pronunciation of the word “nuclear” raises the question, is it being done to show the ignorance of the President, or because his stubbornness has prevailed. As Americans, children are taught to look up to the President both as a knowledgeable individual, and as a positive leader for the country. What sort of example is being set for American children, when the President of the United States refuses to accept the fact that his pronunciation is simply incorrect and ridiculous?

American Presidents in the last fifty years also seem to have quite a bad habit of making seriously detrimental policy decisions, both domestically and internationally. Beginning with the current President, major tactical blunders include the invasion of Iraq without provocation, and the failure of the U.S. to capture the man responsible for the single largest attack on American since Pearl Harbor, Osama bin Laden. Nixon and Johnson kept the United States in Viet Nam, and the United States has been to the brink of war with the former Soviet Union. These events have all been exacerbated by the policies of the President presiding during the event in question.

Perhaps the high public expectations of the President are at least partly responsible for the public appraisal of the President himself. As a result, the next inevitable question must be, is high public expectation at all to blame for the performance of the President? It often seems that the higher the expectation of the public that a President will be successful in bringing prosperity to the country, the greater the chance that President has of falling hard on domestic and foreign policies that are not popular with the public. Perhaps the stress on the President, especially in an age where nuclear war and the end of life on earth are discussed openly, as well as the strain of representing an entire country is simply too much for any one person. Many European countries have continually shied away from the concept of one main figurehead of the country that has power equal to that of a large body of pubic representatives. Perhaps this concept is a fact that the United States should pay attention to, based on the continued factors of having one decent President for every two that set the country back economically and socially.

Americans at least, must share the blame for the way that the President often seems pulled between two different viewpoints. In many ways, the belief that the President is pulled in two different directions is a positive sign that the President is at least considering more than one side of an issue. However when a President acts as aggressively and as stubbornly as the current one has, especially in the areas of cooperation with other countries, and its continual campaigns of pubic deceit, one must argue that expectations for the President are too high. Stress has a tendency to cause rash decisions that have negative consequences. For this reason, perhaps Americans should expect less of the President, and more of groups with many members such as the Congress, both House and Senate.

In an age where forms of war exist that can deliver mass devastation from thousands of miles away, it is increasingly necessary to have open dialog with the rest of the world. This is not to say that the President should be weak. However, the President must not be stubborn and refuse to work with other nations that have traditionally been considered allies of the United States. This is especially important when attempting to deal with countries such as Iran and North Korea, on the verge of development of nuclear weapons. Once again, it seems impossible not to be drawn to the conclusion that expectations for the President, at least in America, are excessively high considering recent history.

The Potential Prospects for Manuel Antonio Noriega Moreno

Manuel Antonio Noriega Moreno, the former de-facto dictator and military general from Panama, will be released from prison on December 10, 2007. The release has the potential not only to promote widespread rioting and bloodshed; it also has a former president, George W. Bush, fearing for his personal safety. The essential question therefore remains, will Noriega revert to his former heydays of bloodshed and corruption, or will the ex-general turn to a peaceful civilian life? Both sides may in fact be debated vehemently. Prison life, according to sources inside the penitentiary, is said to have altered Noriega from an often fidgety, uncomfortable, eccentric, and sarcastic warlord, into a somewhat calmer and more centered and deliberate convict.

The prospect of Manuel Noriega sitting quietly in some South America country, biding his time until old age and death finally overtake him seems not only implausible, but also completely against the character traits shown previously by Noriega. A more likely and comprehensible scenario is that prison has hardened Noriega into a more calculated and cunning criminal. Noriega not only orchestrated his own rise to power, he educated himself at the School of the Americas as well as at the Military School of Chorrillos. Therefore, he is one who is used to the constant push to achieve the highest possible goals. Noriega is also a man rooted in past codes of violent conduct, and would seem perfectly at home in the ranks of Hugo Chavez’s leftist movement.

Noriega was seized and deposed in Operation Just Cause, carried out during the presidency of the first president Bush. The irony of this is extraordinary, based on the fact that Bush arranged the payment of over one hundred thousand dollars per year in exchange for “help” from Noriega in disrupting the cocaine flow from Panama into the United States. However, Noriega in the guise of a double agent managed to play both sides until his arrest, both financing and reaping the benefits of the Medellin and Bogota cocaine growers, as well as funds given to him from the United States government.

The prospect of Noriega reestablishing his former power in the Panamanian cocaine trade, are few and far between. The Panamanian drug trade has been largely overrun by countries such as Peru, greatly reducing the importance of Panama on the cocaine market. Secondly, the powers base that legitimized Noriega and his vast record of human rights violations, no longer holds power in Panamanian politics. However, Noriega still has family living in Panama and in neighboring Columbia, making his return to South America a legitimate and seemingly likely prospect. The thirty years spent in a federal prison in Miami have likely softened local and national dislike in Panama for Noriega. Noriega may even be seen as something of a local hero in some areas of Panama, that euphorically recall the days when certain parts of Columbia. Medellin and Bogota for example, were flooded with cocaine wealth. Memories of the glories of the past are not easily forgotten and the power of cocaine, although less in the United States now than in the seventies and eighties, is still a multi-billion dollar business throughout the U.S. and the rest of the world as well.

The former President George W. Bush is apparently so bothered and apprehensive about the release of Noriega, that he has asked Assistant U.S. Attorney Patrick Sullivan to halt the release of Noriega based on the fear of Bush that Noriega will place a price on his head or plot his execution. However far fetched this accusation may seem, the first George Bush remembers and realizes all too well the days when members of the CIA feared the threat of his assassination around every corner, and in every country. The former president and Manuel Noriega, who is now sixty-two, both have a slightly old-guard approach to political relationships. The first Bush has been accused by Noriega’s lawyer, Frank Rubino, of being a “wussy,” further, exacerbating Bush’s claims that Noriega is plotting his assassination.

The fact remains that Noriega is sixty-two, and is reported to be a model prisoner, these two facts almost guarantee his release next year if evidence of this assassination plot cannot be found. Reports from inside prison have stated that Noriega intends to travel back to Panama and settle the remaining legal matters he has in that country, and settle down to enjoy his remaining years with his grandchildren. Prison reports are often deceiving however, because convicts are not likely to admit to plans, if the admission will lead to a potential sentence extension. Additionally, the information from a snitch, especially a jailhouse snitch is always under scrutiny as well as suspicion. Therefore, the plans of prisoners for life after incarceration are potentially rife with untruth. Noriega has a high I.Q., the realization that his former image as a drug-smuggling killer must be changed before the re-entrance into society, has not escaped him.

The only true way to study the potential future disposition of a person is to examine their personality in the past, just as current events must be examined within a historical context. The world has not seen Noriega since 1992 when the sentence was handed down at the tune of thirty years behind bars. Despite the statement that Noriega intends to return to Panama, the courts there sentenced him in absentia in 1995. Therefore, with the return to Panama comes the increased risk of incarceration in a prison system much worse than that even in the United States. Therefore, it seems suspicious that Noriega would place himself in the path of further legal and court battles.

Is it possible that a man who held out through U.S. siege tactics and the possibility of mob lynching, is now simply going to live the rest of his life in quite enjoyment and exile after a mere fifteen years of imprisonment? The basic personality traits on Manuel Noriega seem to make this prospect possible, yet highly unlikely. Prior to capture, Noriega was a man who seemed constantly on the rise, constantly pushing for greater power and influence. Will Noriega be able to sit by and watch the affairs of Panama take place from afar? The study of the past would suggest otherwise.

The return of Noriega to even a minor position of power would be detrimental not only to U.S. foreign relations with Columbia, Panama; and Peru, but it would almost certainly involve the increase in the amount human rights abuses and corruption in Panama. The situation seems to be perfect now for the potential re-introduction of a dictator in Panama because the new president, as well as increasingly greater numbers of farmers, are advocating for the increased production of Coca. Noriega could not choose a better time to reintroduce himself to the politics in Panama. The country is rife with farmers dissatisfied with the low-profit producing crops advocated by the CIA, such as coffee. Noriega, always adept at sensing the air for the right moment to attack, could potentially ride this wave of pro-cocaine support in Panama, directly back into some sort of position of power where the possibility of criticism and hatred directed towards the United States will be an imminent threat. This however seems only possible if Noriega is able to clear his name, and or avoid a jail sentence in panama.

The retention of Noriega by the United States would be a major victory in securing the position of the U.S. in Panama as well as South America. Noriega would be damaging to the U.S. if it were possible for him to once again gain power. However it is equally detrimental foreign policy if his retention caused an even greater upsurge in Leftist sentiment. Modernization has come slowly to South America, and it seems as if it has come even slower in Panama. Much of the countryside remains the same as it has since the early nineteen hundreds. The economy is still very rural, however democracy has thrived successfully since Noriega was deposed. The return of Noriega to Panama, even without a position of power, may have the power to remind some farmers and former recipients of drug wealth, the power and currency that flowed into their hands when Noriega was in power. A return of the military as a central form of government is possible if Noriega is to somehow re-gain even a portion of the former authority once held.

The war on drugs is another sector that would potentially be harmed if Manuel Noriega were to reenter the political spectrum in South America. The dealings and friends that Noriega still has in the South American cocaine cartels are not unknown to the CIA. Noriega still has contacts in positions of power who are associated with drug trafficking. The numbers of crack and powder cocaine arrests made in America each year are greatly dependant on the quantity of raw, uncut cocaine, which is able to pass into the Unites States. The increase in the amount of raw product that enters the U.S., creates a market where price falls and quality rises, producing increasing amounts of drug addicts with increasingly stronger addictions to break.
The release of Noriega certainly doe not guarantee a breakdown or a great loss in war on drugs, but it has the potential to create unrest and tension in South America, where the reminders of Noriega past atrocities are not so quickly forgotten. Nations such as Bolivia could potentially become places of sanctuary for Noriega, based on their recent outspokenness in supporting the cocaine trade. Peru, and its leftist –leaning leader Hugo Chavez could even be a refuge for the former dictator, away from the vigilant eyes of the U.S. intelligence agencies.

Daniel Strong '07